CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-10-07T20:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-10-07T20:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/33829/-1
CME Note: Wide, bright CME seen to the southwest in SOHO C2/C3 seemingly composed of two or more overlapping loops with internal structure clearly visible and no cavity. Presence of very faint shock may possibly be seen due south in LASCO C2 running difference imagery and may begin to reveal itself to the north-northeast in late SOHO frames after 22:30Z, though disjoint from the main CME body. Associated with a sympathetic eruption resulting from the long duration X2.1/X1.0-class flares (AR3842) located farther behind the southwestern limb than where the X2.1 takes place (W60) as seen in SDO 171 imagery; the CME appears to originate closer to the southwestern limb. Fast, widely opening field lines are also observed in GOES SUVI 284.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-10T20:08Z (-4.25h, +4.93h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/10/07 20:10Z Plane of Sky 1: 01:55Z; 31.5Rsun; SW Direction Plane of Sky 2: 05:55Z; 31.5Rsun; NE Direction POS Difference: 4:00 POS Midpoint: 03:55Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 7:45 Numeric View/Impact Type: 1 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~9.29 Travel Time: ~9.29 * 7:45 = 71:58 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-10-10T20:08Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time Square Root: 50% Method Update: https://www.desmos.com/calculator/nfk166mjdh Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 3/5 Forecast Creation Time: 2024/10/08 03:33ZLead Time: -7.68 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-10-11T03:49Z
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